Averaged Freshman Graduation Rate
Texas Ranks 32^nd in On-time Graduation in 2004-05

Roy L. Johnson, M.S.

In 2004-05, Texas ranked 35^th out of 50 states and the District of Columbia in on-time graduation from public schools. That year, Texas had an on-time graduation rate of 74.0 percent compared with 74.7 percent for the nation as a whole.

The National Center for Education Statistics (NCES) in the U.S. Department of Education, Institute of Education Sciences, released the 2004-05 averaged freshman graduation rates (AFGR) in June 2006. This relatively new NCES indicator of high school dropouts and completers provides an estimate of the percentage of high school students starting at ninth grade who graduate on time with a regular diploma. Data for this measure were drawn from counts of enrollment by grade and graduates in the Common Core of Data (CCD) State Non-fiscal Survey of Public Elementary/Secondary Education.

The 50 states and the District of Columbia reported counts of high school graduates in 2001-02, 2002-03 and 2004-05, while 48 states and the District of Columbia reported graduate counts for 2003-04 (see table on next page for rates by state and rank orders by state). The data were reported by state education agencies for high school graduates between the period of October 1 and September 30 of each applicable school year.

Methods

The averaged freshman graduation rate is calculated by dividing the number of graduates with regular diplomas by the size of the incoming freshman class four years earlier and is expressed as a percent. Aggregate student enrollment data and aggregate counts of the number of diplomas awarded are used to estimate the percent of students who graduate on time.

Major Findings

Major findings include the following (also see table).

• About three-fourths of freshmen in the United States graduated from high school on time in the three years of data reported.
• The averaged freshman graduation rate increased from 72.6 percent in 2001-02 to 73.9 percent in 2002-03 to 75.0 percent in 2003-04.
• From 2003-04 to 2004-05, the averaged freshman graduation rate decreased from 75.0 percent in 2003-04 to 74.7 percent in 2004-05.
• For the class of 2001-02, the averaged freshman graduation rate of public schools ranged from a low of 57.9 percent in South Carolina to a high of 85.8 percent in New Jersey. Eighteen states and the District of Columbia had rates lower than the overall average of 72.6 percent: Alabama, Alaska, Delaware, District of Columbia, Florida, Georgia, Hawaii, Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississippi, Nevada, New Mexico, New York, North Carolina, Oregon, South Carolina, Tennessee and Washington. Nine states had rates 80.0 percent or higher: Iowa, Minnesota, Nebraska, New Jersey, North Dakota, Pennsylvania, Utah, Vermont and Wisconsin. In 2001-02, Texas ranked 30^th among the 50 states and the District of Columbia with a rate of 73.5 percent.
• For the class of 2002-03, the averaged freshman graduation rate of public schools ranged from a low of 59.6 percent in the District of Columbia to a high of 87.0 percent in New Jersey. Fifteen states and the District of Columbia had rates lower than the overall average of 72.6 percent: Alabama, Alaska, Delaware, District of Columbia, Florida, Georgia, Hawaii, Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississippi, Nevada, New Mexico, New York, North Carolina, Oregon, South Carolina and Tennessee. Fourteen states had rates 80.0 percent or higher: Connecticut, Idaho, Iowa, Minnesota, Montana, Nebraska, New Jersey, North Dakota, Pennsylvania, South Dakota, Utah, Vermont, Virginia and Wisconsin. In 2002-03, Texas ranked 29^th (tied with Indiana) among the 50 states and the District of Columbia with a rate of 75.5 percent.
• For the class of 2003-04, the averaged freshman graduation rate of public schools ranged from a low of 57.4 percent in Nevada to a high of 87.6 percent in Nebraska. Twenty states and the District of Columbia had rates lower than the overall average of 75.0 percent: Alabama, Alaska, Arizona, California, Delaware, District of Columbia, Florida, Georgia, Hawaii, Indiana, Kentucky, Louisiana, Michigan, Mississippi, Nevada, New Mexico, North Carolina, Oregon, South Carolina and Tennessee. Fifteen states had rates 80.0 percent or higher: Connecticut, Idaho, Illinois, Iowa, Minnesota, Missouri, Montana, Nebraska, New Jersey, North Dakota, Ohio, Pennsylvania, South Dakota, Utah and Vermont. In 2003-04, Texas ranked 26^th among the 48 states and the District of Columbia with a rate of 76.7 percent.
• For the class of 2004-05, the averaged freshman graduation rate of public schools ranged from a low of 55.8 percent in Nevada to a high of 87.8 percent in Nebraska. Nineteen states and the District of Columbia had rates lower than the overall average of 74.7 percent: Alabama, Alaska, California, Delaware, District of Columbia, Florida, Georgia, Indiana, Louisiana, Michigan, Mississippi, Nevada, New Mexico, New York, North Carolina, Oregon, South Carolina, Tennessee and Texas. Seventeen states had rates 80.0 percent or higher: Arizona, Connecticut, Idaho, Iowa, Minnesota, Missouri, Montana, Nebraska, New Hampshire, New Jersey, North Dakota, Ohio, Pennsylvania, South Dakota, Utah, Vermont and Wisconsin. In 2004-05, Texas ranked 35^th among the 50 states and the District of Columbia with a rate of 74.0 percent.
• From 2001-02 to 2004-05, 45 of the 51 reporting states or jurisdictions had an increase in their averaged freshman graduation rates, and six experienced declines in rates.

The addition of the averaged freshman graduation rate has expanded the number of indicators of school holding power. Along with traditional indicators of high school dropouts, completers and graduates – event dropout rates, status dropout rates, status school completion rates, attrition rates – the averaged freshman graduation rate provides unique information about the ability of public schools to hold on to students and provide them a quality education leading to a high school diploma and subsequent enrollment into postsecondary education.

Resources

National Center for Education Statistics. Dropout Rates in the United States: 2002 and 2003 (Washington, D.C.: U.S. Department of Education, NCES, June 2006).

National Center for Education Statistics. The Averaged Freshman Graduation Rate for Public High Schools From the Common Core of Data: School Years 2002-03 and 2003-04 (Washington, D.C.: U.S. Department of Education, NCES, July 2006).

National Center for Education Statistics. Public Elementary and Secondary School Student Enrollment, High School Completions, and Staff From the Common Core of Data: School Year 2005-06 (Washington, D.C.: U.S. Department of Education, NCES, June 2006) NCES 2007-352.

Roy L. Johnson, M.S., is director of IDRA Support Services. Comments and questions may be directed to him via e-mail at This e-mail address is being protected from spam bots, you need JavaScript enabled to view it .

[©2007, IDRA. The following article originally appeared in the IDRA Newsletter by the Intercultural Development Research Association. Every effort has been made to maintain the content in its original form. However, accompanying charts and graphs may not be provided here. To receive a copy of the original article by mail or fax, please fill out our information request and feedback form. Permission to reproduce this article is granted provided the article is reprinted in its entirety and proper credit is given to IDRA and the author.]