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• by Celina Moreno, J.D. • IDRA Newsletter • May 2026 •

In this commentary, IDRA President and CEO Celina Moreno reflects on her own high school experience, the long-term impact of Texas attrition rates and the urgent need for schools to strengthen student support and graduation pathways.

I remember being shuffled onto squeaky risers with the rest of the roughly 1,000, mostly Latino, freshmen in my high school class for our panoramic class photo. Four years later, I was stunned to learn I was graduating in a class of only 500. Out of 1,000 students, 500 of my classmates were not graduating with the rest of us – an attrition rate of about 50%. A few years later, my high school became low-key infamous when newspapers quoted the Building a Grad Nation report that labeled my school as a “dropout factory” (Balfanz et al., 2010).

The 500 lost students from my class are among the over 4.3 million students that Texas public schools have lost in the last four decades – more people than live in Los Angeles. This year marks the 40th year IDRA has tracked Texas high school attrition rates, which are an indicator of a school’s ability to keep high school freshmen enrolled through graduation. The attrition rates for the four years I was in high school (1995-1999) were the highest on record: Texas lost more than half of their Latino students and Black students during that time.

So many students paid the price in lost college opportunities and hampered career options. That lost potential motivated me in college to cover the education beat as a student journalist, study education policy as a graduate student, and pursue a career as an education policy and legal advocate. It is what made me want to lead IDRA, which has worked for over 50 years to ensure public schools prepare all students to access and succeed in college.

IDRA’s inaugural attrition study, commissioned by the state and led by IDRA’s late President Emerita Dr. María “Cuca” Robledo Montecel, answered three questions (2004).

The first question: How many students are dropping out? The answer was over 86,000 students that year. The attrition rate for Latino students was 45%, by far the highest percentage of any racial/ethnic group at the time.

This year’s findings show a troubling disruption in the progress Texas schools have made to keep students on track to graduate. By not graduating one in five high school students, Texas pushes a fifth of our students away from college.

The second question: Why are students leaving? Students left for many reasons, but feeling a lack of connection to school was an underlying theme of the study’s findings.

And lastly: What is it costing Texas? The answer was: $17.2 billion over the lifetime of those students in foregone income, lost tax base, increased unemployment costs, increased criminal justice costs, and increased public assistance spending. On the other hand, IDRA found that for every $1 invested in keeping students in school, $9 would be returned.

That was 1986. Before that time, no one knew exactly how many students in Texas were leaving school without a high school diploma. IDRA’s study put on paper what families could sense and what businesses complained of when they lamented not having a big enough talent pool from which to hire. Those without a high school diploma have the highest unemployment rates (BLS, 2025a). They are twice as likely to be unemployed (NCES, 2026). And, over a lifetime, they will earn $200,000 to $250,000 less than high school graduates and $1 million less than those with a bachelor’s degree (BLS, 2025b; SSA, 2023; CEW, 2011).

When IDRA’s attrition study first came out, it ruffled feathers and drew media attention and an onslaught of mail. One school board member claimed to a reporter that the researchers had “manipulated” the attrition rates and, in the same breath, suggested IDRA should have altered the results to avoid embarrassing the district (Cárdenas, 1995).

In 2026, when the world is changing faster than ever before, when we face unrecognizable challenges, and when many future careers have not even been invented yet – especially in STEM fields – students need all the tools they can get. They cannot just rely on a particular trade or skill set.

But policymakers took it seriously and passed Texas House Bill 1010 almost unanimously in 1987. The legislation contained all of IDRA’s recommendations to create an official dropout identification, policies for counting and reporting dropout data, requirements for the state agency and school districts, and procedures for interventions at the district level, such as the requirement to have a dropout coordinator. Importantly, the bill came with funding.

For four decades, IDRA has conducted a dropout study every year using the same vanguard methodology that is now used by researchers nationwide. We are the only organization to have consistently examined Texas attrition rates for 40 years.

See our latest attrition study: Texas Public School Attrition Study, 2024-25 – High School Attrition Rate Worsens with Biggest Jump in Four Decades, by Christina Quintanilla-Muñoz & Joanna Sánchez

We knew it would be vital to keep pressure on the state and school leaders. Unfortunately, in the proceeding years, state leaders often seemed more concerned with being embarrassed by the latest dropout data than with the data itself. TEA even changed procedures to reduce dropout numbers without actually reducing the number of dropouts (Robledo Montecel, 2000).

IDRA did successfully pressure the state to improve its counting procedures to, for example, count as dropouts students who dropped out to earn a GED (Robledo Montecel, 2003). But as the years went by, dropouts in Texas were again systematically under-reported, creating a false sense of security. By minimizing the problem, the state promoted inaction.

There also have been efforts by researchers, educators and policymakers to blame students’ characteristics – like race, class or language – for their lack of success. That is unacceptable. It leads to self-destructive results, particularly in a state like Texas where two in three students are poor, half are Latino, and one in four is an emergent bilingual student (TEA, 2025).

Contradicting the deficit framework are schools serving predominantly poor, Latino emergent bilingual students that do provide their students with a quality education. Around the country, educators have identified variables they have control over and pioneered ways to transform schools from places that cannot hold onto their students into places that graduate them.

IDRA’s Valued Youth Partnership (VYP), a school-based dropout prevention program, has demonstrated for 40 years how putting young people deemed at risk of dropping out into positions of leadership can completely redirect their trajectory toward graduation and a better future. VYP continues to keep 98% of students in school, expose them to college life and make a visible difference in the lives of over 795,000 children, families and educators.

IDRA has also identified policies linked to higher dropout rates, including exclusionary discipline, in-grade retention, inequitable school funding, lack of support for emergent bilingual students, non-college preparatory curricula, and standardized testing that is high-stakes. At the most fundamental level, students stay in school and perform better when they are supported academically and feel welcome, safe and secure.

In 2026, when the world is changing faster than ever before, when we face unrecognizable challenges, and when many future careers have not even been invented yet – especially in STEM fields – students need all the tools they can get. They cannot just rely on a particular trade or skill set. They must be able to think critically and problem solve. They must have the knowledge and capacity to adapt over and over again in order to thrive and support their families and communities. Certainly, we must ensure students are not pushed out before they even earn a high school diploma.

IDRA’s most recent study found that Texas experienced the largest single-year increase in attrition rates in four decades and lost more than one in five students before graduation (Quintanilla-Muñoz & Sánchez, 2026). This year’s findings show a troubling disruption in the progress Texas schools have made to keep students on track to graduate.

By not graduating one in five high school students, Texas pushes a fifth of our students away from college.

While there have been major strides for the attrition rates of Latino students in the last 40 years – the rate dropped from 45% in 1985 to 26% today – we are still losing one in four Latino students. We are still losing one in four Black students. And the gap between Black students and white students has actually widened over time.

I think back to those squeaky risers and wonder how different life would be for half of my fellow freshman class if our school had been better-funded, had smaller class sizes, and had enough counselors to advise all students. What if our school had IDRA’s VYP program for our classmates most at-risk of dropping out, or had an early college high school program?

I wanted for my high school classmates then what I now want for my own children. IDRA will not stop pushing until all students are prepared for college and can determine their own lives, contribute meaningfully to their communities, and engage critically in the world around them.

Resources

Balfanz, R., Bridgeland, J.M., Moore, L.A., Hornig Fox, J. (November 2010). Building a Grad Nation – Progress and Challenge in Ending the High School Dropout Epidemic. Civic Enterprises, Everyone Graduates Center at Johns Hopkins University, and America’s Promise Alliance.

BLS. (April 2025a). Education Pays: Unemployment Rates and Earnings by Education. U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.

BLS. (April 22, 2025b). Median Weekly Earnings by Educational Attainment. U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Cárdenas, J.A. (1995). Multicultural Education: A Generation of Advocacy. Simon & Schuster.

CEW. (August 2011). The College Payoff: Education, Occupations, Lifetime Earnings. Georgetown University Center on Education and the Workforce.

NCES. (2026). Trends in High School Dropout and Completion Rates in the United States. National Center for Education Statistics.

Quintanilla-Muñoz, C., & Sánchez, J. (May 2026). Texas Public School Attrition Study, 2024-25 – High School Attrition Rate Worsens with Biggest Jump in Four Decades. IDRA.

Robledo Montecel, M. (September 2000). Texas School Dropout Counting and Reporting – A Need for Credibility – Testimony by presented to the Texas State Board of Education.

Robledo Montecel, M. (June-July 2003). Texas Needs Diplomas Not Delusions. IDRA Newsletter.

Robledo Montecel, M. (February 27, 2004). From “Dropping Out” to “Holding On” – Seven Lessons from Texas, expanded from a presentation to the Education Writers Association’s Regional Seminar, “Left Behind? Dropouts and High School Reform.”

SSA. (July 2023). Education and Lifetime Earnings. Social Security Administration.

TEA. (2025). Student Enrollment Report, 2025-26. Texas Education Agency.

Texas House Bill 1010 (70^th regular session). (September 1, 1987). Relating to reducing the number of students who drop out of public school.

Celina Moreno, J.D., is President & CEO of IDRA (contact@idra.org).

FAQs

What is a school attrition rate?

A school attrition rate measures how many students are lost from enrollment between ninth grade and 12th grade. IDRA uses attrition rates as an indicator of a school’s holding power, or its ability to keep students enrolled through graduation.

How many students have Texas schools lost over the last 40 years?

According to IDRA’s attrition studies, Texas public schools have lost more than 4.3 million students from enrollment over the last four decades.

Why does IDRA study attrition rates?

IDRA began Texas’ first statewide attrition study in 1986 to understand how many students were leaving school before graduation, why they were leaving and what the long-term impacts were on students and communities. IDRA has continued the study annually for 40 years.

What contributes to students leaving school before graduation?

IDRA has identified several school policies and conditions linked to higher attrition rates, including exclusionary discipline, in-grade retention, inequitable school funding, lack of support for emergent bilingual students, non-college preparatory curricula and testing that is high stakes.

How can schools strengthen student success and graduation rates?

Research and school-based programs show students are more likely to graduate when they feel academically supported, connected to school and valued as leaders. Programs like IDRA’s Valued Youth Partnership demonstrate how leadership opportunities and mentoring can strengthen school engagement and persistence.

How have attrition rates changed over time for Latino students and Black students?

IDRA’s studies show attrition rates for Latino students have improved significantly over four decades, but Texas schools still lose one in four Latino students before graduation. The gap between Black students and white students has widened over time.

Why are attrition studies important for Texas communities?

Attrition studies help communities understand the long-term educational, economic and social impacts of students leaving school before graduation. The findings inform policies and school practices that can improve student outcomes and strengthen public schools.

[© 2026, IDRA. This article originally appeared in the May edition of the IDRA Newsletter. Permission to reproduce this article is granted provided the article is reprinted in its entirety and proper credit is given to IDRA and the author.]